The Harsh Reality of a Reduced CHT Growth Rate

White paper: The Harsh Reality of a Reduced CHT Growth Rate

This white paper details how looming changes to the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) will result in significantly less health care funding for provinces and territories. The paper provides a historic perspective of the CHT escalator, outlines the changes to come in 2027-2028, and analyses projections of the CHT escalator using current and upcoming policy changes. Analysis found that with an average growth rate of 3.8% annually, the cumulative CHT will be $51.8 billion less over 10 years than if the escalator remained at 5% annual growth.

An early copy of this white paper was presented to attending Premiers at a meeting with the CFNU during the Council of the Federation in July 2026.

Key recommendations

1. That the Prime Minister’s Office consult with health care stakeholders to prepare for a First Ministers’ Meeting on the future demands of Canada’s health care system.
2. That the Prime Minister convene a First Ministers’ Meeting on health care in 2026, which would include provincial and territorial premiers and Indigenous leaders, to address the future of the Canada Health Transfer escalator, among other items.
3. These pan-Canadian discussions should focus on whether the CHT continue growing by at least 5% annually after 2027-2028, or Canada move toward restoring the previous 6% escalator, to ensure federal health funding keeps pace with long-term pressures facing provincial and territorial health systems.

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